By Jon Herskovitz and Sean Maguire
SEOUL/LONDON (Reuters) - North Korea is readying a controversial rocket for launch as early as Saturday, officials said, pushing ahead with a plan widely seen as a disguised long-range missile test.
"I think it's almost certain North Korea will fire the missile," South Korean President Lee Myung-bak told a small group of reporters in London where he had attended the G20 summit.
North Korea has said it will send a satellite into space between Saturday and Wednesday, and insists it has the right to do so as a part of a peaceful space program.
Analysts said the launch helps North Korean leader Kim Jong-il shore up support after a suspected stroke in August raised questions of his grip on power, and bolsters his hand in using military threats to wrangle concessions from global powers.
Lee said on Friday Kim's health appeared to be improving and that he looked to have a continued hold on power.
South Korea and Japan say the launch is a disguised test of the long-range Taepodong-2 missile, which is designed to carry a warhead capable of reaching U.S. territory but which blew apart about 40 seconds after launch during its only test flight in July 2006.
Weather permitting, the launch could take place as early as Saturday, Lee said. A U.S. defense official has also said the North's actions were consistent with an April 4 launch. Cloudy skies and moderately strong winds are forecast for Saturday.
The United States, South Korea, and Japan are pushing for U.N. punishment for the launch they say violates U.N. resolutions that ban further ballistic missile since the previous Taepodong-2 test and the North's only nuclear test in October 2006.
"We favor sending out a very strong and stern message to the North Koreans that the international community does not condone nor will it accept North Korea engaging in such actions," South Korea's Lee told a small group of reporters in London where he had attended the G20 summit.
Several Security Council diplomats told Reuters on condition of anonymity that no one was considering imposing new sanctions for the launch but the starting point could be discussing a resolution for the tougher enforcement of earlier sanctions.
Both Russia and China, the latter the nearest the reclusive North has to a major ally, have made clear they would block new sanctions by the Council, where they have veto power.
Lee said the launch would only harm Pyongyang in talks with regional powers over its nuclear weapons program.
"While in the short term it might give them an upper hand in the negotiations, in the long term the trust given them by the international community will only lessen and this will not be in their benefit," he said.
South Korea, along with China, Japan, Russia and the United States, has been trying for years to persuade the impoverished North to give up its efforts to build a nuclear arsenal in return for massive aid.
Financial markets in South Korea, accustomed to the North's military taunts over the years, have shrugged off the impending launch. The last test led to a temporary fall in the Japanese yen, a drop in Seoul shares and a small increase in gold prices.
Some analysts have suggested a successful launch could give North Korea's Kim the confidence in the face of possible opposition from his powerful military to name one of his sons as a successor. Kim was himself designated by his father as heir.
Speculation has grown that ill-health may be sapping Kim's iron grip on power, something Lee dismissed.
"It seems that he does not have a trouble governing North Korea. His state of health seems to have improved."
Brian Myers, a professor at the South's Dongseo University who is an expert on the North's state ideology, said Kim needs to show defiance and military strength to compensate for his state's economic failures.
"When you are unable to feed your people, if you cannot give them food, you have to at least give them pride. If he is unable to do that, then he does face a legitimization crisis," Myers said.
Japan, the United States and South Korea said they have no plans to shoot down the rocket unless it threatens their territory. Experts said escalating tensions could threaten North Asia, which accounts for about one-sixth of the global economy.
But that has not stopped the North from making threats. It said any attempt to intercept the missile will be considered an act of war and any U.N. punishment could be met by a resumption of its plant that makes arms-grade plutonium.
"The response so far from the North Koreans has been not just unhelpful but has resorted to the sort of language that has led to North Korea's international isolation in the international community for a very long time," Obama said.
The Taepodong-2, with an estimated range of around 4,200 miles, is supposed to fly over Japan, dropping boosters to its west and east on a path that takes it southwest of Hawaii.
(Additional reporting by Jon Herskovitz and Kim Junghyun in Seoul, Linda Sieg in Tokyo, Jonathan Thatcher in London; Editing by Jeremy Laurence)
Source: International Herald Tribune
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